Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionITIllicit teamloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
cybercatswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Illicit team
Bloodseekeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 33 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 18 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 17 games
Visagesignature
DkFogas · 17 games
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 15 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 15 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 563 bans
Puck
523 picks · 1034 bans
Dawnbreaker
472 picks · 626 bans
Marci
435 picks · 779 bans
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 407 bans
Snapfire
344 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 379 bans
Razor
313 picks · 598 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
Illicit team 39%cybercats 61%
The model gave 61% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 23:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingStoneBank
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
52% · 57 games
LinaEgor
54% · 33 games
EnigmaDkFogas
46% · 33 games
DoomFezor
47% · 41 game
DisruptorHduo
Game 2prediction correct26:46
Illicit team 39%cybercats 61%
The model gave 61% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaStoneBank
Faceless VoidShigetsu
38% · 22 games
Storm SpiritEgor
63% · 4 games
EnigmaDkFogas
47% · 15 games
ClockwerkFezor
70% · 6 games
DazzleHduo
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 71%
Series resultcybercats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2