1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
11Monkeyzwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 563 bans
Puck
523 picks · 1032 bans
Dawnbreaker
472 picks · 626 bans
Marci
435 picks · 779 bans
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 405 bans
Snapfire
344 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 379 bans
Razor
313 picks · 598 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:31
SG e-sports 64%11Monkeyz 36%
The model gave 64% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 38:46.
Game 2prediction missed24:20
SG e-sports 64%11Monkeyz 36%
The model gave 64% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 28:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 64%
Series result11Monkeyz 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2