1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
Bane
antoha · 20 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 15 games
Tiny
velheor · 15 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 563 bans
Puck
522 picks · 1035 bans
Dawnbreaker
471 picks · 626 bans
Marci
433 picks · 778 bans
Winter Wyvern
366 picks · 404 bans
Snapfire
345 picks · 166 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 379 bans
Razor
315 picks · 597 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% X3
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:47
11Monkeyz 40%X3 60%
The model gave 60% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 35:31.
Game 2prediction correct33:20
11Monkeyz 40%X3 60%
The model gave 60% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 34:17.
Game 3prediction correct28:12
11Monkeyz 40%X3 60%
The model gave 60% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 30:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 60%
Series result11Monkeyz 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3