HF vs Into The Breach — prediction 1x Series · Dota 2

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1x Series · BO3

result vs prediction

HFloss 0:2

series probability

22%78%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Into The Breachwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand Kingsignature

Cloud · 16 games

63%

Miranasignature

ArrOw · 14 games

71%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Cloud · 13 games

54%

Pucksignature

hAze · 13 games

62%

Kunkkaoften banned

TA2000 · 12 games

50%

Shadow Shaman

Kaori · 12 games

58%

Beastmastersignature

Cloud · 10 games

60%

Iosignature

Kaori · 10 games

80%

Into The Breach

Enigmasignature

Xibbe · 13 games

85%

Tinysignature

Ari · 13 games

77%

Keeper of the Lightsignature

Supream^ · 11 games

82%

Crystal Maidensignature

Kidaro · 9 games

67%

Enchantressoften banned

Kidaro · 9 games

44%

Hoodwink

Ari · 9 games

56%

Terrorbladesignature

Otaker · 9 games

78%

Void Spiritoften banned

Supream^ · 9 games

56%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

737 picks · 573 bans

53%

Puck

526 picks · 1053 bans

55%

Dawnbreaker

469 picks · 622 bans

45%

Marci

433 picks · 775 bans

52%

Winter Wyvern

370 picks · 405 bans

55%

Snapfire

356 picks · 180 bans

48%

Zeus

326 picks · 378 bans

46%

Razor

324 picks · 616 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)52% vs 73%

Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total78% Into The Breach

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct

HF 22%Into The Breach 78%

The model gave 78% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach.

Game 2prediction correct

HF 22%Into The Breach 78%

The model gave 78% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach.

Model check result

Model favoriteInto The Breach · 78%

Series resultInto The Breach 0:2

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 2