1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 13 games
Tinysignature
Ari · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 9 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
X3
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Bane
antoha · 20 games
Tiny
velheor · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 13 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 13 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 569 bans
Puck
524 picks · 1051 bans
Dawnbreaker
469 picks · 619 bans
Marci
432 picks · 775 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 405 bans
Snapfire
356 picks · 180 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 377 bans
Razor
325 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Into The Breach 58%X3 42%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperOtaker
PuckNattyNarwhal
PudgeSupream^
EnigmaShergarat
LycanXibbe
Troll Warlordnesfeer
HoodwinkAri
Chendark
UndyingKidaro
Earthshakervelheor
Game 2prediction correct45:18
Into The Breach 59%X3 41%
The model gave 59% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeOtaker
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Void SpiritSupream^
MarsShergarat
PangolierXibbe
BatriderNattyNarwhal
TuskAri
Enchantressvelheor
DazzleKidaro
Clockwerkdark
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 65%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2