ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Razorsignature
ATF · 24 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 23 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 20 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 18 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 17 games
Earthshaker
Ceb · 16 games
Marssignature
ATF · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
734 picks · 568 bans
Puck
521 picks · 1051 bans
Dawnbreaker
469 picks · 619 bans
Marci
432 picks · 775 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 405 bans
Snapfire
360 picks · 180 bans
Zeus
325 picks · 377 bans
Razor
324 picks · 618 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% OG
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Fnatic 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 37:32.
Game 2prediction correct38:26
Fnatic 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 45:19.
Game 3prediction correct25:8
Fnatic 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 71%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3