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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
80%

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 35 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 17 games
71%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 16 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 15 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 14 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 14 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
737 picks · 574 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
522 picks · 1060 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
469 picks · 612 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 405 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
366 picks · 191 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
324 picks · 374 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
322 picks · 626 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% HF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
HF 41%IVY 59%
The model gave 59% on IVY — the game was taken by HF in 38:35.
Game 2prediction correct13:30
HF 41%IVY 59%
The model gave 59% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 40:19.
Game 3prediction correct56:58
HF 41%IVY 59%
The model gave 59% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 1:21:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 59%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3