ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
737 picks · 573 bans
Puck
526 picks · 1061 bans
Dawnbreaker
466 picks · 611 bans
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 195 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 404 bans
Zeus
324 picks · 372 bans
Razor
322 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:24
Fnatic 28%Entity 72%
The model gave 72% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 36:38.
Game 2prediction correct15:29
Fnatic 28%Entity 72%
The model gave 72% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 31:46.
Game 3prediction correct22:32
Fnatic 28%Entity 72%
The model gave 72% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 32:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 72%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3