1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
11Monkeyzloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
jesv · 7 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
737 picks · 573 bans
Puck
526 picks · 1061 bans
Dawnbreaker
466 picks · 611 bans
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 195 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 404 bans
Zeus
324 picks · 372 bans
Razor
322 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:14
YNT 51%11Monkeyz 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 32:26.
Game 2prediction missed30:29
YNT 51%11Monkeyz 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 34:58.
Game 3prediction missed63:41
YNT 51%11Monkeyz 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 1:01:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 51%
Series resultYNT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3