Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Anime Enjoyersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Miranasignature
sayuw · 30 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 29 games
Banesignature
Panto · 22 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 16 games
Iosignature
Panto · 15 games
Anime Enjoyers
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 3 games
Marcioften banned
sunset · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Clockwerk
sunset · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Earth Spirit
sunset · 1 game
Earthshaker
sunset · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
743 picks · 566 bans
Puck
529 picks · 1066 bans
Dawnbreaker
464 picks · 608 bans
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 199 bans
Winter Wyvern
365 picks · 401 bans
Zeus
323 picks · 372 bans
Razor
322 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:6
One Move 65%Anime Enjoyers 35%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 20:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
BristlebackCoblackk
Queen of Painmellojul
Skywrath Magesunset
Visagekasane
ChenPanto
Tinysayuw
Game 2prediction correct30:13
One Move 64%Anime Enjoyers 36%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 27:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkSmiling Knight
MorphlingCoblackk
Razorkasane
Earth Spiritsunset
Batridermellojul
ChenPanto
Tusksayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 76%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2