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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 5 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 4 games
25%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
0%

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 33 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 17 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 15 games
53%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 15 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 14 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 14 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
740 picks · 566 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
529 picks · 1063 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
464 picks · 605 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
431 picks · 772 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 199 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
365 picks · 400 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
323 picks · 371 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
322 picks · 630 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:48
EZ KATKA 42%IVY 58%
The model gave 58% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeLukas
59% · 42 games54% · 71 game
Storm SpiritMo13ei
Storm Spirit
Visage
VisageWuiter
57% · 85 games40% · 73 games
ViperMax
Viper
Batrider
BatriderRvze
45% · 123 games47% · 243 games
TinyQupe
Tiny
Marci
MarciLefitan
54% · 172 games51% · 35 games
Chenjmn-
Chen
Game 2prediction missed25:15
EZ KATKA 39%IVY 61%
The model gave 61% on IVY — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 26:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
40% · 135 games54% · 79 games
Queen of PainMo13ei
Queen of Pain
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
52% · 28 games61% · 9 games
VenomancerMax
Venomancer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkRvze
46% · 126 games62% · 26 games
Chenjmn-
Chen
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterLefitan
little data50% · 175 games
TinyQupe
Tiny
Game 3prediction missed28:7
EZ KATKA 43%IVY 57%
The model gave 57% on IVY — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 16:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackLukas
60% · 39 games51% · 49 games
EnigmaMax
Enigma
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRvze
51% · 25 games50% · 200 games
MarsMo13ei
Mars
Axe
AxeWuiter
56% · 23 games45% · 66 games
TuskQupe
Tusk
Tiny
TinyLefitan
44% · 284 games48% · 56 games
Chenjmn-
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 63%
Series resultEZ KATKA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3