Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionITIllicit teamwin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
11Monkeyzloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Illicit team
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
742 picks · 564 bans
Puck
529 picks · 1061 bans
Dawnbreaker
464 picks · 601 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 200 bans
Winter Wyvern
364 picks · 398 bans
Zeus
323 picks · 368 bans
Razor
320 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
Illicit team 40%11Monkeyz 60%
The model gave 60% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by Illicit team in 26:35.
Game 2prediction missed48:30
Illicit team 40%11Monkeyz 60%
The model gave 60% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by Illicit team in 43:19.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 60%
Series resultIllicit team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2