ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fnaticloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 32 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 18 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 16 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
742 picks · 560 bans
Puck
527 picks · 1057 bans
Dawnbreaker
462 picks · 598 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 198 bans
Winter Wyvern
363 picks · 397 bans
Zeus
323 picks · 368 bans
Razor
319 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 37%
Hero pool strength63% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Team Aster 79%Fnatic 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:43.
Game 2prediction missed35:35
Team Aster 79%Fnatic 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Fnatic in 1:04:46.
Game 3prediction correct39:6
Team Aster 79%Fnatic 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 79%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3