ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fnaticwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
Tusk
GH · 14 games
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
Iosignature
GH · 10 games
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
742 picks · 560 bans
Puck
527 picks · 1057 bans
Dawnbreaker
462 picks · 598 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 198 bans
Winter Wyvern
363 picks · 397 bans
Zeus
323 picks · 368 bans
Razor
319 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 34%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nigma Galaxy 63%Fnatic 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 63%
Series resultFnatic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1