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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
X3win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 31 game
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 16 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 15 games
53%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 15 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 14 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
69%

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
737 picks · 557 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
523 picks · 1050 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
455 picks · 594 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 392 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
321 picks · 368 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
317 picks · 625 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:23
IVY 55%X3 45%
The model gave 55% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
55% · 397 games56% · 66 games
Bristlebacknesfeer
Bristleback
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMax
44% · 240 games56% · 302 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Undying
Undyingjmn-
58% · 102 games43% · 110 games
TidehunterShergarat
Tidehunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageQupe
44% · 169 games46% · 264 games
Snapfirevelheor
Snapfire
51% · 166 games
Iodark
Io
Game 2prediction missed40:65
IVY 53%X3 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by X3 in 57:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMo13ei
46% · 178 games51% · 111 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMax
46% · 92 games54% · 144 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Enchantress
Enchantressjmn-
56% · 219 games46% · 107 games
DawnbreakerShergarat
Dawnbreaker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerQupe
57% · 76 games47% · 79 games
Zeusvelheor
Zeus
47% · 124 games
Clockwerkdark
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed17:43
IVY 53%X3 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by X3 in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
51% · 367 games52% · 61 game
Alchemistnesfeer
Alchemist
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMax
42% · 33 games62% · 34 games
VenomancerShergarat
Venomancer
Mirana
MiranaQupe
53% · 138 games43% · 135 games
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
Kunkka
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenjmn-
48% · 34 games49% · 179 games
Enchantressvelheor
Enchantress
53% · 163 games
Dawnbreakerdark
Dawnbreaker
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 57%
Series resultX3 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3