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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 22 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 22 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 19 games
74%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
73%
Viper
Viperoften banned
ATF · 14 games
57%

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SumaiL · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
36%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
82%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
56%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
736 picks · 556 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
522 picks · 1045 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
454 picks · 591 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
369 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 392 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
321 picks · 368 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
316 picks · 624 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total75% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:18
OG 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
52% · 86 games58% · 57 games
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
Nature's Prophet
Huskar
HuskarATF
little data48% · 46 games
VisageDreamocel
Visage
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
45% · 142 games44% · 71 game
Faceless VoidMinD_ContRoL
Faceless Void
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChuvash
43% · 22 games50% · 45 games
ChenKuroKy
Chen
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTaiga
60% · 23 games55% · 54 games
Earth SpiritGH
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct23:26
OG 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
47% · 35 games52% · 165 games
BloodseekerDreamocel
Bloodseeker
Viper
ViperATF
48% · 88 games49% · 148 games
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
Keeper of the Light
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
50% · 164 gameslittle data
Primal BeastMinD_ContRoL
Primal Beast
Monkey King
Monkey KingTaiga
55% · 170 games52% · 50 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Chen
ChenChuvash
50% · 49 games47% · 143 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 75%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2