ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Tiny
Timado · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
Banesignature
DuBu · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
Pucksignature
bryle- · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 556 bans
Puck
522 picks · 1045 bans
Dawnbreaker
454 picks · 591 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 392 bans
Zeus
321 picks · 368 bans
Razor
316 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Fnatic 40%TSM 60%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 33:00.
Game 2prediction correct44:21
Fnatic 40%TSM 60%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 44:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 60%
Accuracy by game2 of 2