Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
cybercatswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 29 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 19 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 16 games
Visagesignature
DkFogas · 14 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 13 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hduo · 13 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 554 bans
Puck
522 picks · 1043 bans
Dawnbreaker
454 picks · 591 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 392 bans
Zeus
321 picks · 368 bans
Razor
316 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:33
MooN team 37%cybercats 63%
The model gave 63% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 39:01.
Game 2prediction correct29:47
MooN team 37%cybercats 63%
The model gave 63% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 37:34.
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 63%
Series resultcybercats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2