Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionITIllicit teamwin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Illicit team
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
YNT
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
jesv · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 553 bans
Puck
522 picks · 1042 bans
Dawnbreaker
454 picks · 589 bans
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 391 bans
Zeus
321 picks · 366 bans
Razor
316 picks · 623 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Illicit team 25%YNT 75%
The model gave 75% on YNT — the game was taken by Illicit team.
Game 2prediction missed
Illicit team 25%YNT 75%
The model gave 75% on YNT — the game was taken by Illicit team.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 75%
Series resultIllicit team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2