1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 553 bans
Puck
522 picks · 1042 bans
Dawnbreaker
454 picks · 589 bans
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 391 bans
Zeus
321 picks · 366 bans
Razor
316 picks · 623 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% HF
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
11Monkeyz 53%HF 47%
The model gave 53% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by HF in 30:41.
Game 2prediction missed13:34
11Monkeyz 53%HF 47%
The model gave 53% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by HF in 39:12.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 53%
Series result11Monkeyz 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2