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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 22 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 22 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 18 games
78%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
73%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 14 games
43%
Viper
Viperoften banned
ATF · 14 games
57%

TSM

Tiny
Tiny
Timado · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
77%
Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
735 picks · 552 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
520 picks · 1039 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
453 picks · 588 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 197 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 391 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
315 picks · 622 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:24
OG 49%TSM 51%
The model gave 51% on TSM — the game was taken by OG in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuragi
44% · 66 games53% · 55 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbzm
47% · 31 game51% · 147 games
Death Prophetbryle-
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsATF
49% · 364 games49% · 66 games
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
Legion Commander
Techies
TechiesChuvash
33% · 8 games48% · 223 games
SnapfireMoonMeander
Snapfire
Chen
ChenTaiga
61% · 58 games52% · 36 games
DazzleDuBu
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed27:47
OG 50%TSM 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by TSM in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linabzm
47% · 208 games60% · 186 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
43% · 123 games61% · 20 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuragi
47% · 53 games46% · 251 game
Queen of Painbryle-
Queen of Pain
Io
IoTaiga
49% · 158 games57% · 82 games
PhoenixMoonMeander
Phoenix
Lion
LionChuvash
50% · 109 games46% · 112 games
ClockwerkDuBu
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2