ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 31 game
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 16 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 16 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
734 picks · 550 bans
Puck
518 picks · 1037 bans
Dawnbreaker
453 picks · 582 bans
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
Snapfire
366 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
360 picks · 389 bans
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
Razor
315 picks · 622 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 14%
Hero pool strength63% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:38
Team Aster 92%Alliance 8%
The model gave 92% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:44.
Game 2prediction correct36:21
Team Aster 92%Alliance 8%
The model gave 92% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 43:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 92%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2