ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 11 games
Doomsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 8 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
734 picks · 550 bans
Puck
518 picks · 1037 bans
Dawnbreaker
453 picks · 582 bans
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
Snapfire
366 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
360 picks · 389 bans
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
Razor
315 picks · 622 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:45
Entity 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:38.
Game 2prediction missed8:20
Entity 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 25:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2