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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 24 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 21 game
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
72%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Tims · 15 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%

TSM

Tiny
Tiny
Timado · 15 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 12 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 11 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 11 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
726 picks · 548 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
515 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
450 picks · 574 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
428 picks · 761 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
355 picks · 384 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
318 picks · 363 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
313 picks · 617 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:25
BOOM Esports 49%TSM 51%
The model gave 51% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingJaCkky
58% · 135 games50% · 151 game
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Tiny
TinyYopaj
48% · 338 games62% · 94 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
52% · 169 games51% · 319 games
Puckbryle-
Puck
Zeus
ZeusTims
39% · 139 games49% · 226 games
EnchantressDuBu
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
42% · 179 games50% · 170 games
RubickMoonMeander
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct28:15
BOOM Esports 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYopaj
52% · 85 games51% · 313 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Weaver
WeaverJaCkky
52% · 272 games47% · 222 games
Queen of Painbryle-
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
53% · 195 games61% · 94 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Tiny
TinyTims
49% · 340 games45% · 145 games
TuskMoonMeander
Tusk
Dazzle
DazzleSkem
45% · 65 games44% · 183 games
EnchantressDuBu
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2