ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 29 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 16 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 31 game
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
Weaversignature
Sacred · 17 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
720 picks · 539 bans
Puck
510 picks · 1020 bans
Dawnbreaker
447 picks · 565 bans
Marci
424 picks · 754 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
350 picks · 375 bans
Zeus
315 picks · 360 bans
Razor
304 picks · 613 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:16
Team Aster 57%Thunder Awaken 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawXxs
Templar AssassinPakazs
BloodseekerMonet
InvokerDarkMago
Queen of PainOri
RazorSacred
TinyBoBoKa
Winter WyvernPanda
DazzleFantasy
ClockwerkMatthew
Game 2prediction correct53:27
Team Aster 54%Thunder Awaken 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorXxs
BatriderDarkMago
Faceless VoidMonet
Monkey KingPakazs
Void SpiritOri
WeaverSacred
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
Ogre MagiPanda
GrimstrokeFantasy
TinyMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 60%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2