ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 11 games
Doomsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
720 picks · 539 bans
Puck
510 picks · 1020 bans
Dawnbreaker
447 picks · 565 bans
Marci
424 picks · 754 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
350 picks · 375 bans
Zeus
315 picks · 360 bans
Razor
304 picks · 613 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 17%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:38
Team Secret 81%Alliance 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 30:04.
Game 2prediction correct32:11
Team Secret 81%Alliance 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 81%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2