Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs predictionMSMeme Squadloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empire Hopewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Meme Squad
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
lilskrip · 1 game
Doomoften banned
paradise' · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
illusion · 1 game
Rubick
illusion · 1 game
Viperoften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Warlock
lilskrip · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
paradise' · 1 game
Team Empire Hope
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
krylat · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
krylat · 3 games
Dazzle
antoha · 3 games
Iooften banned
antoha · 3 games
Pudge
krylat · 3 games
Viperoften banned
Mastery · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
717 picks · 534 bans
Puck
508 picks · 1013 bans
Dawnbreaker
444 picks · 560 bans
Marci
421 picks · 749 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 193 bans
Winter Wyvern
348 picks · 369 bans
Zeus
313 picks · 355 bans
Razor
300 picks · 607 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:29
Meme Squad 42%Team Empire Hope 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Juggernautkrylat
Bloodseekerparadise'
VisageMastery
ViperBlizzy
Winter Wyvernantoha
Marciillusion
Dazzlelilskrip
Game 2prediction missed44:26
Meme Squad 41%Team Empire Hope 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Meme Squad in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerparadise'
Alchemistkrylat
TinySquad1x
ViperMastery
DawnbreakerBlizzy
Enchantressantoha
Zeusillusion
Warlocklilskrip
Game 3prediction correct18:40
Meme Squad 40%Team Empire Hope 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 22:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistparadise'
Pudgekrylat
DawnbreakerBlizzy
ViperMastery
InvokerSquad1x
Ioantoha
Dazzlelilskrip
Zeusillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 63%
Series resultTeam Empire Hope 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3