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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
jesv · 7 games
43%

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 22 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
716 picks · 532 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
509 picks · 1013 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
443 picks · 559 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
418 picks · 749 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
347 picks · 367 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
312 picks · 354 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
300 picks · 611 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% X3
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
YNT 45%X3 55%
The model gave 55% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 35:48.
Game 2prediction correct41:35
YNT 45%X3 55%
The model gave 55% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 45:12.
Game 3prediction correct35:8
YNT 45%X3 55%
The model gave 55% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 25:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 55%
Series resultYNT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3