?
arrow_backBack to match
1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 5 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 4 games
25%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
0%

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 22 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
716 picks · 531 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
509 picks · 1011 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
441 picks · 559 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
416 picks · 749 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
347 picks · 365 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
311 picks · 353 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
300 picks · 610 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% X3
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
EZ KATKA 34%X3 66%
The model gave 66% on X3 — the game was taken by X3.
Game 2prediction correct
EZ KATKA 34%X3 66%
The model gave 66% on X3 — the game was taken by X3.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 66%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2