Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO5
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:3series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Hokoriwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 9 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
Bloodseekersignature
Costabile · 6 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
716 picks · 532 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1011 bans
Dawnbreaker
441 picks · 559 bans
Marci
416 picks · 749 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
347 picks · 365 bans
Zeus
311 picks · 353 bans
Razor
301 picks · 611 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
nouns 71%Hokori 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns.
Game 2prediction missed
nouns 71%Hokori 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by Hokori.
Game 3prediction missed
nouns 71%Hokori 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by Hokori.
Game 4prediction missed
nouns 71%Hokori 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by Hokori.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 71%
Series resultHokori 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4