Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Beastmastersignature
ArzenT · 15 games
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 13 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 12 games
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 11 games
Visageoften banned
drakeel · 9 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
Rubicksignature
MoOz · 8 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
716 picks · 529 bans
Puck
509 picks · 1009 bans
Dawnbreaker
440 picks · 556 bans
Marci
414 picks · 748 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
347 picks · 364 bans
Zeus
311 picks · 350 bans
Razor
301 picks · 610 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% Mad Kings
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:25
Mad Kings 38%Hokori 62%
The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 35:56.
Game 2prediction correct9:24
Mad Kings 38%Hokori 62%
The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 23:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 62%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2