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Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empire Hopeloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EZ KATKAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire Hope

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 3 games
100%
Dazzle
Dazzle
antoha · 3 games
67%
Pudge
Pudge
krylat · 3 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
krylat · 2 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
krylat · 2 games
100%
Io
Iooften banned
antoha · 2 games
50%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Mastery · 2 games
100%

EZ KATKA

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 5 games
40%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Lukas · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Rvze · 4 games
25%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
716 picks · 526 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 1004 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
436 picks · 552 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
409 picks · 744 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 193 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
345 picks · 358 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
309 picks · 346 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
300 picks · 611 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength62% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
Team Empire Hope 58%EZ KATKA 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterkrylat
35% · 60 games57% · 114 games
LinaLukas
Lina
Razor
RazorMastery
48% · 181 game59% · 44 games
EnigmaWuiter
Enigma
Io
Ioantoha
44% · 148 games55% · 165 games
Queen of PainRvze
Queen of Pain
56% · 66 games
MarciLefitan
Marci
Game 2prediction missed21:36
Team Empire Hope 61%EZ KATKA 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMastery
51% · 81 game54% · 18 games
PudgeLukas
Pudge
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerkrylat
52% · 71 game53% · 67 games
DawnbreakerWuiter
Dawnbreaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenantoha
36% · 25 games55% · 52 games
ZeusRvze
Zeus
45% · 40 games
Skywrath MageLefitan
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed8:28
Team Empire Hope 60%EZ KATKA 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 19:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistkrylat
51% · 57 games52% · 9 games
Shadow FiendRvze
Shadow Fiend
Viper
ViperMastery
47% · 100 games52% · 54 games
LinaLukas
Lina
Earthshaker
EarthshakerjAMES
51% · 69 games52% · 55 games
EnigmaWuiter
Enigma
Chen
Chenantoha
57% · 61 game44% · 169 games
TinyLefitan
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 68%
Series resultEZ KATKA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3