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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 30 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 12 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 12 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Lowskill · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 11 games
55%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 11 games
55%

Into The Breach

Enigma
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 11 games
82%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 11 games
82%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ari · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 7 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Supream^ · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
712 picks · 526 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
512 picks · 998 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
436 picks · 551 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
407 picks · 741 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 193 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
345 picks · 354 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
309 picks · 343 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
299 picks · 609 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 72%
Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total59% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:53
IVY 46%Into The Breach 54%
The model gave 54% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMo13ei
46% · 118 games45% · 105 games
JuggernautOtaker
Juggernaut
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLowskill
57% · 87 games56% · 77 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Timbersaw
TimbersawMax
44% · 139 games56% · 119 games
BatriderSupream^
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
52% · 185 games49% · 320 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Viper
Viperjmn-
47% · 128 games44% · 36 games
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed37:10
IVY 43%Into The Breach 57%
The model gave 57% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by IVY in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorLowskill
48% · 226 games50% · 299 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
47% · 337 games51% · 105 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawMax
49% · 136 games54% · 217 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaQupe
55% · 166 games51% · 191 game
RubickAri
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenjmn-
43% · 45 games48% · 98 games
DazzleKidaro
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct8:44
IVY 44%Into The Breach 56%
The model gave 56% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 25:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLowskill
51% · 68 games58% · 131 game
WeaverOtaker
Weaver
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMax
54% · 132 games60% · 37 games
PudgeSupream^
Pudge
Viper
ViperMo13ei
44% · 116 games62% · 74 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Marci
MarciQupe
50% · 190 games38% · 50 games
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Crystal Maiden
Dazzle
Dazzlejmn-
38% · 89 games44% · 303 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 59%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3