Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hokoriwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
712 picks · 525 bans
Puck
511 picks · 998 bans
Dawnbreaker
434 picks · 550 bans
Marci
407 picks · 738 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 193 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 354 bans
Zeus
307 picks · 343 bans
Razor
300 picks · 607 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Wolf Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:15
Wolf Team 36%Hokori 64%
The model gave 64% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 29:39.
Game 2prediction correct29:34
Wolf Team 36%Hokori 64%
The model gave 64% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 38:48.
Game 3prediction correct22:28
Wolf Team 36%Hokori 64%
The model gave 64% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 37:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 64%
Series resultHokori 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3