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Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 1:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mad Kings

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 14 games
71%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 12 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 11 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 10 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
drakeel · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
25%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
MoOz · 8 games
63%

nouns

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 9 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Costabile · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
711 picks · 523 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 996 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
434 picks · 548 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
406 picks · 738 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 192 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 352 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
307 picks · 343 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
299 picks · 606 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:19
Mad Kings 33%nouns 67%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeAdrx
50% · 35 games32% · 12 games
AlchemistGunnar
Alchemist
Weaver
WeaverArzenT
53% · 204 games49% · 98 games
Monkey KingCostabile
Monkey King
50% · 83 games
RazorMoo
Razor
51% · 15 games
ChenHusky
Chen
51% · 31 game
EarthshakerZfreeK
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction correct21:41
Mad Kings 33%nouns 67%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightAdrx
51% · 106 games48% · 84 games
MedusaCostabile
Medusa
Weaver
WeaverArzenT
56% · 199 games40% · 99 games
Void SpiritGunnar
Void Spirit
49% · 57 games
ViperMoo
Viper
50% · 18 games
ChenHusky
Chen
47% · 47 games
MarciZfreeK
Marci
Game 3prediction correct15:39
Mad Kings 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarAdrx
57% · 23 games54% · 24 games
BristlebackCostabile
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterArzenT
54% · 165 games41% · 26 games
TuskGunnar
Tusk
45% · 34 games
Keeper of the LightMoo
Keeper of the Light
46% · 87 games
TinyZfreeK
Tiny
43% · 17 games
DazzleHusky
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 79%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3