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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 77 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 49 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 45 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 45 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 44 games
66%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 40 games
73%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 22 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
676 picks · 856 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
585 picks · 597 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 431 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
486 picks · 338 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 1120 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 696 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1030 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:12
MOUZ 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
59% · 225 games47% · 340 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingMidOne
52% · 275 games50% · 81 game
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Largo
LargoBOOM
50% · 157 games50% · 305 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Venomancer
VenomancerSeleri
53% · 47 games43% · 479 games
JakiroxNova
Jakiro
Tusk
Tuskyamich
50% · 617 games46% · 116 games
Clockwerkfy
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct23:39
MOUZ 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
56% · 233 games43% · 153 games
WeaverAme
Weaver
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
37% · 13 games52% · 341 game
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Razor
RazorBOOM
55% · 82 games47% · 193 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Tusk
Tuskyamich
49% · 413 games54% · 48 games
VenomancerxNova
Venomancer
Jakiro
JakiroSeleri
50% · 297 games46% · 303 games
Dark Willowfy
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct10:39
MOUZ 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 47:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingCrystallis
54% · 9 games55% · 48 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
54% · 195 games46% · 67 games
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Invoker
InvokerMidOne
53% · 125 games43% · 67 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinyamich
52% · 81 game49% · 193 games
Tuskfy
Tusk
Lich
LichSeleri
52% · 17 games43% · 52 games
DazzlexNova
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 59%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3