Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
One Move
Miranasignature
sayuw · 31 game
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 28 games
Banesignature
Panto · 23 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
sayuw · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 525 bans
Puck
515 picks · 993 bans
Dawnbreaker
434 picks · 547 bans
Marci
403 picks · 737 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
342 picks · 350 bans
Zeus
306 picks · 341 bans
Razor
297 picks · 608 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 52%
Hero pool strength61% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:19
11Monkeyz 25%One Move 75%
The model gave 75% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 41:09.
Game 2prediction correct17:29
11Monkeyz 25%One Move 75%
The model gave 75% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 40:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 75%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2