1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Dazzle
Flash · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Flash · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
ArisE · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Into The Breach
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 10 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 9 games
Tinysignature
Ari · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Pucksignature
Supream^ · 7 games
Banesignature
5up · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 523 bans
Puck
515 picks · 994 bans
Dawnbreaker
433 picks · 547 bans
Marci
403 picks · 735 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 349 bans
Zeus
305 picks · 341 bans
Razor
297 picks · 611 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:46
No Bounty Hunter 36%Into The Breach 64%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerShad
LycanXibbe
PuckAdzantick
PudgeSupream^
BatriderkAAN
Earth SpiritMiLAN
ViperFlash
HoodwinkAri
50% · 98 games
DazzleKidaro
Game 2prediction correct24:42
No Bounty Hunter 36%Into The Breach 64%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawAdzantick
LycanXibbe
PudgeShad
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Night StalkerkAAN
SlarkMiLAN
DazzleFlash
ZeusAri
45% · 54 games
HoodwinkKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 76%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2