1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
11Monkeyzwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EZ KATKA
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Lukas · 4 games
Tiny
Rvze · 4 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 523 bans
Puck
513 picks · 993 bans
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 545 bans
Marci
402 picks · 733 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 349 bans
Zeus
304 picks · 341 bans
Razor
297 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:29
EZ KATKA 39%11Monkeyz 61%
The model gave 61% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 35:20.
Game 2prediction correct28:45
EZ KATKA 39%11Monkeyz 61%
The model gave 61% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 47:30.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 61%
Series result11Monkeyz 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2