Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 16 games
Techies
bgod · 11 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
711 picks · 524 bans
Puck
513 picks · 995 bans
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 545 bans
Marci
402 picks · 733 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 196 bans
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 349 bans
Zeus
304 picks · 341 bans
Razor
297 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 25%
Hero pool strength57% Wolf Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Wolf Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Wolf Team 71%The Cut 29%
The model gave 71% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Wolf Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Wolf Team 71%The Cut 29%
The model gave 71% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Wolf Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteWolf Team · 71%
Series resultWolf Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2