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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
YNTwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
80%

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
711 picks · 525 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
514 picks · 999 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 544 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
399 picks · 732 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
340 picks · 347 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
304 picks · 341 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
297 picks · 609 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% HF
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:32
HF 55%YNT 45%
The model gave 55% on HF — the game was taken by YNT in 37:24.
Game 2prediction missed22:28
HF 55%YNT 45%
The model gave 55% on HF — the game was taken by YNT in 32:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 55%
Series resultYNT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2