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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 25 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jhocam · 22 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Techies
Techies
NARMAN · 14 games
43%
Windranger
Windranger
rubikon155 · 14 games
43%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%

Natus Vincere

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 29 games
55%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 24 games
79%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 24 games
67%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Bane
Banesignature
Riddys · 18 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Riddys · 17 games
76%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
512 picks · 301 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
413 picks · 173 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
382 picks · 173 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 501 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
320 picks · 290 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 311 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
295 picks · 497 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
276 picks · 355 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 78%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:20
Team Nemesis 31%Natus Vincere 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoJaCkky
51% · 45 games56% · 100 games
Necrophosgotthejuice
Necrophos
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
48% · 149 games44% · 85 games
LinaNiku
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
53% · 320 games53% · 92 games
Brewmasterpma
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
50% · 216 games51% · 186 games
MiranaRiddys
Mirana
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorNARMAN
48% · 54 games47% · 321 game
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct13:24
Team Nemesis 30%Natus Vincere 70%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
47% · 184 games49% · 237 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierKen
50% · 309 games44% · 118 games
LinaNiku
Lina
Lifestealer
LifestealerJaCkky
49% · 90 games58% · 328 games
Doompma
Doom
Rubick
RubickJhocam
46% · 213 games49% · 342 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
51% · 571 game58% · 342 games
BaneRiddys
Bane
Game 3prediction missed36:23
Team Nemesis 29%Natus Vincere 71%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosJabz
60% · 148 games46% · 238 games
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyJaCkky
52% · 551 game56% · 344 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Lina
LinaKen
46% · 150 games50% · 203 games
Axepma
Axe
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJhocam
47% · 63 games51% · 213 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
45% · 249 games47% · 163 games
MiranaRiddys
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 84%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3