BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Hoodwink
Mira · 49 games
Windranger
Nightfall · 30 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 26 games
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 23 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 23 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 20 games
Team Liquid
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 35 games
Tinysignature
miCKe · 29 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
Clockwerk
Boxi · 19 games
Rubick
Boxi · 17 games
Tusksignature
Boxi · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
516 picks · 307 bans
Dark Willow
417 picks · 180 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 174 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 503 bans
Winter Wyvern
323 picks · 293 bans
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 312 bans
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 499 bans
Windranger
276 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total52% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:42
Aurora Gaming 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMikoto
WindrangermiCKe
TinySkiter
DawnbreakerWisper
AxeWs
Ember SpiritMidOne
PhoenixKaori
HoodwinktOfu
Dark WillowMira
LionBoxi
Game 2prediction missed31:21
Aurora Gaming 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSkiter
TerrorblademiCKe
LycanWs
Ember SpiritMidOne
Outworld DestroyerMikoto
BatriderWisper
JakiroKaori
HoodwinktOfu
Dark WillowMira
RubickBoxi
Game 3prediction missed46:38
Aurora Gaming 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:03:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSkiter
TimbersawWisper
Dark SeerWs
TinymiCKe
Outworld DestroyerMikoto
Ember SpiritMidOne
JakiroKaori
HoodwinktOfu
Dark WillowMira
LionBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 52%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3