BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 18 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
Kezsignature
Watson · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
Undyingsignature
Malady · 13 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Hoodwink
Save- · 30 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Kataomi · 30 games
Kezsignature
Kiritych · 28 games
Banesignature
Kataomi · 25 games
Rubicksignature
Save- · 24 games
Windrangersignature
Save- · 24 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Save- · 22 games
Largosignature
MieRo · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
514 picks · 305 bans
Dark Willow
414 picks · 179 bans
Mirana
384 picks · 175 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 504 bans
Winter Wyvern
322 picks · 292 bans
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 310 bans
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 498 bans
Undying
276 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Team Yandex
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total68% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:21
Team Yandex 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetWatson
SvenKiritych
ViperATF
DawnbreakerMieRo
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Outworld DestroyerSave-
DazzleMalady
Dark Willowswedenstrong
HoodwinkSaksa
Winter WyvernKataomi
Game 2prediction correct34:25
Team Yandex 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosATF
Lone DruidKiritych
TinyWatson
DoomMieRo
PangolierChira JUNIOR
InvokerSave-
Witch DoctorMalady
Crystal MaidenKataomi
RubickSaksa
Windrangerswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 68%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2