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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yamich · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
BOOM · 16 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 12 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
BOOM · 12 games
42%

OG

Windranger
Windranger
Tims · 16 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 13 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Natsumi · 13 games
38%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 12 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Tims · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
514 picks · 305 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
414 picks · 179 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 175 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 504 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
322 picks · 292 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 310 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 498 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
276 picks · 354 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total76% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:33
MOUZ 35%OG 65%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 59:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa423
44% · 124 games45% · 85 games
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
45% · 85 games54% · 79 games
Monkey KingTopson
Monkey King
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSupream^
57% · 117 games56% · 332 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Bane
BaneMoOz
44% · 192 games51% · 142 games
TechiesSkem
Techies
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
46% · 186 games61% · 66 games
Bounty HunterOneJey
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct11:25
MOUZ 36%OG 64%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkz423
52% · 105 games52% · 114 games
SvenNatsumi
Sven
Tiny
TinyBOOM
48% · 326 games53% · 344 games
LargoSSS
Largo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
52% · 314 games49% · 257 games
InvokerTopson
Invoker
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorMoOz
53% · 86 games45% · 282 games
TechiesSkem
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
52% · 572 games45% · 406 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 76%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2