Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 18 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 12 games
Tiny
StoneBank · 10 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
yarintheslayer · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 7 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 5 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
Zeusoften banned
FrancisLee · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
708 picks · 524 bans
Puck
512 picks · 997 bans
Dawnbreaker
431 picks · 542 bans
Marci
396 picks · 731 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 346 bans
Zeus
303 picks · 339 bans
Razor
296 picks · 606 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:21
Team DogChamp 47%Lucky Bird 53%
The model gave 53% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackStoneBank
Monkey KingRises
Winter WyvernRCY
PangolierBlackSoul
ViperITALIANO GANGSTA
MarciWij
Tinyyarintheslayer
DazzleBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct38:31
Team DogChamp 50%Lucky Bird 50%
The model gave 50% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerStoneBank
SvenRises
DawnbreakerITALIANO GANGSTA
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
PuckRCY
RubickWij
WarlockBloody Nine
Marciyarintheslayer
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 52%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2