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Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Cutwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 14 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
31%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
38%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
67%

The Cut

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 14 games
14%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 10 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
33%
Bane
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
25%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 7 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
707 picks · 522 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
512 picks · 996 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
430 picks · 541 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
396 picks · 728 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 343 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
302 picks · 337 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
296 picks · 606 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 21%
Hero pool strength56% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total84% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:20
Wildcard Gaming 84%The Cut 16%
The model gave 84% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by The Cut in 56:30.
Game 2prediction missed36:54
Wildcard Gaming 84%The Cut 16%
The model gave 84% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by The Cut in 59:20.
Game 3prediction missed17:24
Wildcard Gaming 84%The Cut 16%
The model gave 84% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by The Cut in 27:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 84%
Series resultThe Cut 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3