Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wolf Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 8 games
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Husky · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
Husky · 6 games
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
706 picks · 518 bans
Puck
509 picks · 989 bans
Dawnbreaker
424 picks · 535 bans
Marci
393 picks · 722 bans
Snapfire
377 picks · 198 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 337 bans
Zeus
302 picks · 333 bans
Razor
293 picks · 604 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 82%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect