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Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

No games played over 6 months.

Mad Kings

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 13 games
69%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 12 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 11 games
64%
Visage
Visageoften banned
drakeel · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
25%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
MoOz · 8 games
63%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
drakeel · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
705 picks · 516 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
507 picks · 988 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
424 picks · 534 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
392 picks · 721 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 198 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
338 picks · 336 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
302 picks · 330 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
293 picks · 604 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:20
Hokori 62%Mad Kings 38%
The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 31:56.
Game 2prediction missed17:26
Hokori 62%Mad Kings 38%
The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 24:20.
Game 3prediction missed6:42
Hokori 62%Mad Kings 38%
The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 34:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 62%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3