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Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Lucky Birdloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wolf Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lucky Bird

Puck
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Rises · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
FrancisLee · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
FrancisLee · 4 games
75%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
FrancisLee · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 3 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 3 games
67%

Wolf Team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
702 picks · 514 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
504 picks · 986 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
422 picks · 533 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
392 picks · 717 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 196 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
335 picks · 335 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
302 picks · 326 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
292 picks · 602 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
Lucky Bird 59%Wolf Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 34:51.
Game 2prediction missed13:30
Lucky Bird 59%Wolf Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Wolf Team in 28:10.
Game 3prediction missed22:30
Lucky Bird 59%Wolf Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Wolf Team in 42:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 59%
Series resultWolf Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3